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2022全球投资展望：股票、地区和宏观
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Equities: We forecast a total return of 1 1% by year-end 2022, based on our unchanged targetfor the MSCI AC Word index.
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Equities: We forecast a total return of 1 1% by year-end 2022, based on our unchanged targetfor the MSCI AC Word index. The key supports are: monetary condtions remain extremely loose, the equity risk premium remains elevated (above its average, and 80% of bull markets end up with it being below average), and the stage of the cycle (oull markets have almost always continued until unemployment alls below full employment). We see a bond, cash, and debt for equity switch, while revenue estimates in 2022 appear too low. Our key concem is that US profit margins are at al time highs and this requires corporates to maintain pricing power; in turn, this threatens to futher raise inflation expectations. However, if the 10-year breakeven moves above 3% , we believe that would be problematic for the Fed and markets. We prefer equity to credit. Key risks: US wage growth remaining stubbom at current levels, China housing, and fossil fuelsuppy-side constraints. We continue to be more hawkish on inflation. Regions: We add futher to Continental Europe to keep it our strongest overweight. We take Japan to overweight. We keep a small overweight of UK equties (which rank top of our composite scorecard). We reduce GEM to benchmark (stronger dollar, bottom of composite scorecard, only modest easing in China), reversing our September upgrade; we reduce India to a small overweight (it had been our top long). We see the US underperforming global markets in 2022 - paticularly if, as we expect, the cost of high yield debt rises and TIPS stop flling. Parts of US tech, such as software, now appear to have very demanding valuations.
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