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中国虚拟现实行业专题研究报告
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The tech industry hopes vitual reality (VR) will become the next category kller after the PC and smartphone.
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The tech industry hopes vitual reality (VR) will become the next category kller after the PC and smartphone. Just take a look at Facebook changing its name to Meta. Of course, we've been here before, but this time we really do see signs that sales are finally taking off. Headsets are getting better, prices are falling and there's an increasing amount of content available along with other innovations. The result is we believe the industry is set to be the next multibiliondollar market in the next two to three years. Why now? Facebook's latest vitual reality headset, the Oculus Quest 2, has been a blockbuster. We expect sales to hit 8m this year, creating a cnitical mass and triggering more interest in the industry, not just from consumers but content creators too. The cost is just USD299 VS USD400-800 for competitors. Others are also reportedly planning new launches, including Apple and an update to Sony's PlayStation VR headset. While previous VR headsetshad a poor user experience and a lacking ecosystem, many of these problems are now solved or significantly improved. How are we different? Like everyone, we expect more successful game launches to attract more players. But we also see new pillars of growth including fitness apps as well as social networking. aka the metaverse. We forecast VR shipments to grow from 5.6m in 2020 to 50m in 2025e, much higher than IDC's latest estimates of 28 6m by 2025e published in June 2021. And while we believe augmented reality (AR) is still a few years behind VR, in the long run, we believe lower-cost smartphones or PC-tethered AR devices will be the mainstream AR for the consumer market and will boost demand. We foresee the total VR market size growing exponentially to about cUSD45bn in 2030e, representing a CAGR of c30% in 2021-30e.
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