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中国电动汽车时代的经销商：直面直销挑战
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Direct sales is the new business modelforEV start-ups: FollowingTesla's direct sales initiative,and with traditional OEMs such asDaimler and Volkswagen intention to opt for directsales, the markethas been questioning whether third-party dealers are still needed inthe EV era. We expect the profit pool for the entire China dealerindustry to shrink, but we believe EV evolution could acceleratedealer consolidation, bringing higher ROE to top dealers under theagency models while proving challenging to the laggards.
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Transition from ICE franchise to EV agency model reduces dealerservice content but improves ROE: We expect the direct salesmodeL, including self and agent operated, to become the major distri-bution method for Ev (electric vehicle)makers in China by 2025,accounting for 5O-60% of China total EV sales, vs.the current fran-chise model for lCE (internal combustion engine)vehicle sales.Weexpect OEMs to be involved more in the distribution and after-ser-vice via self-operated stores, for direct customer access and futuresoftware revenue, thus leaving a reduced profit pool for the entiredealer industry to share.That said, we believe agency model willgainpopularity over self-operated,as it best aligns the interests of OEMsand dealers.The agency model could bring >40% ROE to survivingdealers, vs.≤30%ROE under the franchise model, thanks to: 1) lowerupfront capex; 2 higher new car margins; and 3) little inventoryfinancing cost.
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