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减少不平等对全球贫困有多重要？
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到2030年消除赤贫并努力实现收入的更平等分配的目标是联合国可持续发展目标的一部分。利用来自166个国家/地区的数据，这些国家/地区占世界人口的97.5％，我们以各种关于增长和不平等的假设，模拟了2019年至2030年全球贫困的情况。我们使用关于增长发生率曲线的不同假设来模拟不平等的变化，并依靠称为基于模型的递归分区的机器学习算法来模拟家庭调查中GDP的增长如何传递到增长。我们还研究了COVID-19对贫困的影响，发现该流行病可能在2020年使约6000万人陷入极端贫困。如果该病毒在所有国家/地区将基尼系数提高2个百分点，那么可能已经有9000万人在2020年陷入极端贫困。
详情描述
减少不平等对全球贫困有多重要？ Abstract The goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and working towards a more oqual distribution of incomes are part of the United Nations" Sustainable Development Goals， Using data from 166 countries comprising 97.5% of the world"s population， we simulate scenarios for global poverty from 2019 to 2030 under various assumptions about growth and inequality， We use different assumptions about growth incidence curves to model changes in inequality， and rely on a machine-leaming algorithm called model-based recursive partitioning to model how growth in GDP is passed through to growth as observed in household surveys. When holding， within- -country inequality unchanged and letting GDP per capita grow according to World Bank forecasts and his totically observed growth rates， our simulations suggest that the number of extreme poor （living on less than $1.90/day） will remain aboveỐ00 million in 20.30， resulting in a global extreme poverty rate of 7.4%. If the Gini index in each country decreases by 1% per year， the global poverty rate could reduce to around G.3% in 2030， equivalent to 89 million fewer people living in extreme poverty. Reducing each country's Gini index by 1% per year has a larger impact on global poverty than increasing each country's annual growth 1 percentage points above forecasts. 【更多详情，请下载：减少不平等对全球贫困有多重要？】
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